Albright's Tour of the Balkans
Sun, 8 Jun 1997 08:58:39 -0400 (EDT)

Neither Milosevic/Plavsic nor Tudjman can comply wuth the Dayton agrement in
full, i.e. allowing refugees back to Croatia or Bosnia, or sending indicted
war criminals to the Hague. THIS WOULD MEAN THE END OF THEIR RULES.The proof
is that the Muslims were denied return to Stolac, or the Serbs to Drvar, for
example. War criminals are considered national heroes. What all the sides are
doing is simply promising to comply, thus trying to avoid being accused of
wrecking the accords.

Milosevic started the war to form Greater Serbia, but instead got
empoverished Serbia and Greater Croata. On the hand Milosevic and Tudjman
agreed to divide Bosnia, which they achieved. Croatia got rid of a bothersome
Serbian minority and will not be willing to have them back. After the
massacre of the Muslim population in Bosnia it sound utopian to expect a
harmonious life of the 3 ethnic groups in the future. This leads me to
conclude that the present 3-part division of Bosnia will stay, in spite of
the fact that most officials in the U.S. government (including Mrs. Albright)
still insist in resurrecting Bosnia in its AVNOJ's borders. Having a bad
geopolitical position, squeezed between two powerful and hostile neighbors it
is hard to visualize that the Muslims (Boshnyaks) could restart the conflict
in the near future to regain some of the territories ... but, it cannot be
ruled out in 5 or 10 years' time. Therefore, there is no solution to the
problem WHERE ALL THE SIDES WILL BE SATISFIED, which means we will have the
Balkans in turmoil for some time.

Vukovich, Miami FL